Prevent Referrals 2025: Rising Vulnerabilities
The latest Home Office Prevent statistics offer a stark snapshot of the pressures facing young people today.
Referrals have climbed to 8,778 in the year to March 2025; the highest number since records began in 2015. For the first time, the sharpest rise is among children aged 11 to 15, now the single largest age group entering the Prevent system.
It would be easy to conclude that extremism among children is growing however, the picture is more complicated. The data points to a generation immersed in online spaces where violent content, conspiracy theories, misogynistic communities and far-right narratives circulate freely. Add to this the rise in mental-health need and neurodiversity, and a much broader context for understanding today’s referrals is revealed.
Concerns for many young people relate to distress, fixation with violence, social isolation or unsafe online behaviour; rather than any clear ideological commitment. The identification of such patterns matters if schools, safeguarding teams, Local Authorities and youth organisations are to tailor appropriate responses. They not only need to understand why referrals are rising, but what these statistics reveal about children's lived experiences.
Statistics
Several factors contributed to the spike seen in late 2024. Although Prevent referrals rose by 27% in 2024–25, this increase must be interpreted cautiously due to the impact changes in the method of recording Channel decisions. With the introduction of the Prevent Case Management Tracker (PCMT), cases are now logged at the point of panel decision, leading to improved overall data capture quality than recorded in previous years. Put simply, improved data capture may account for more reliable statistics than previously gathered.
It is also important to consider that following the Southport murders in July 2024, referrals rose sharply. Between July and March, there were 6,350 referrals, a 34% increase on the same period the year before. August alone saw a 66% rise, and the final quarter of the year recorded 3,287 referrals, significantly higher than any other period. This reflects the predictable pattern in which the public and professionals become more alert and more cautious after a major violent incident.
Whilst there were over 8,700 individuals referred via Prevent, only 1,727 referrals were taken to a Channel panel, of which 1,472 were adopted as Channel cases.
Where consent decisions were recorded:
- 55% agreed to Channel support
- 45% declined
Younger children were the most likely to participate, with 71% of 11–15-year-olds consenting. Education referrals also had higher engagement rates (65%) than community referrals (about 41%). This suggests that older teenagers and adults may require more sustained engagement approaches.
On examining the data, the most notable change is by age category. Where age was known, children aged 11–15 now make up 36% of cases. Boys still account for the vast majority of referrals (89%), reflecting wider patterns in online risk-taking, identity pressures and how concerning behaviour is interpreted by adults.
Ethnicity data is incomplete, but where recorded, White children accounted for 65%, Asian 19%, Black 8% and Other ethnicities 8%. The incomplete dataset makes it difficult to draw strong demographic conclusions, but it does challenge the outdated perception that Prevent disproportionately targets any single minority group.
Education remains the most significant source of referrals (36%), with schools often noticing troubling patterns long before any ideology is identified. The police account for a further 30%. However, the latest data shows that Local Authority and Health referrals have grown sharply. Interestingly, referrals from families and the community have fallen, which may be indications of a lack of awareness and/or reduced confidence in the system.
Regionally, referrals vary considerably. The West Midlands has the highest rate (176 per million people), while the East of England remains the lowest (93 per million).
Referral Categories
The majority of referrals (56%) fall under ‘no identifiable ideology’ category. Only 4% of these progressed to Channel cases. These referrals often include children showing signs of distress, emotional volatility, and/or obsessive interest in violence or harmful online content. Where ideology is recorded in referrals, Extreme Right-Wing (ERW) concerns are now twice as common as Islamist-related concerns (21% vs 10%). Among Channel cases, ERW concerns make up 42%, a clear sign of the shifting extremist landscape.
One of the fastest-growing categories concerns children who display a fascination with extreme violence or mass casualty attacks. Although still a small proportion overall, this category rose dramatically in early 2025, increasing 240% between the 3rd and 4th quarter of the year alone. Much of this behaviour appears rooted in online subcultures that glorify perpetrators of mass violence without any coherent ideology behind it.
Around one-third of referrals (34%) involve children with at least one recorded mental-health or neurodiversity need. Autism Spectrum Disorder is the most common, recorded in 14% of all cases. This does not mean neurodivergent children are more prone to radicalisation; rather, it reflects patterns of vulnerability, social isolation and fixation that may increase the focus of professional attention. This data trend clearly demonstrates why Prevent support should not operate in isolation. Multi-agency connection with SEND processes, mental-health pathways, Early Help, pastoral support and family services is essential if this group of children are to be safeguarded effectively.
The latest data paints a picture of children growing up under unprecedented pressure: digital overload, exposure to violent or extreme content, mental-health strain, and an online world that offers both anonymity and influence. The data indicates that Prevent referrals are rising not because ideology is spreading rapidly, but because professionals are encountering more children struggling with vulnerability, distress and unsafe digital habits.
As such, this needs to be reflected in core Prevent training. Staff training must focuses not just on ideological warning signs, but on behavioural and emotional indicators, fixation, withdrawal and patterns of online use. Prevent needs to sit firmly within the wider safeguarding system, connected to SEND, mental health, pastoral care and online digital safety.
Curriculum work also matters. Young people need the skills to question online content, understand how algorithms shape what they see, and spot the warning signs of harmful online communities.
Beyond schools, local systems must avoid leaning on Prevent as a catch-all. Many cases may be better suited to Early Help, CAMHS or youth work, with Prevent involved only where appropriate or necessary. Building trust with families is essential, especially as community referrals have fallen. At a national level, the improved data infrastructure offers opportunities to understand what support genuinely works, and where the system needs to adapt.
The 2025 Prevent statistics are a reminder that safeguarding is evolving. Children today face risks that are as much about digital environments, identity and mental health as ideology. If schools and safeguarding partners take anything from this year’s data, it should be that the response needs to be joined-up, trauma-informed, digitally aware and rooted in early intervention.
SSS Learning
10 December 2025